Northern Ireland Rail Journeys Surge 19% While Bus Passenger Growth Barely Moves
Northern Ireland recorded 84.0 million public transport journeys in 2025/26, approximately 2.9 million more than the previous year. But the recovery has not been evenly shared: rail journeys rose 19.2% while bus journeys increased by just 0.5%.
Rail drives most of the growth
Official NISRA figures put total journeys at 81.1 million in 2024/25 and 84.0 million in 2025/26, an increase of 3.6%.
Bus journeys edged up from 67.8 million to 68.1 million. Rail journeys jumped from 13.3 million to 15.9 million. Using the rounded totals, rail contributed about 2.6 million of the 2.9 million additional journeys — close to 90% of the increase.
These are passenger journeys, not numbers of unique travellers.
Why Belfast Grand Central matters to the comparison
The 2025/26 financial year was the first full year of rail services from Belfast Grand Central Station. During 2024/25, the opening process involved a prolonged closure of services into Belfast city centre, with replacement buses.
That interruption depresses the previous year's comparison and means the 19.2% growth must not be described as pure new demand.
A longer-term comparison is useful: rail journeys in 2025/26 were 4.9% above the pre-pandemic 2019/20 level of 15.1 million. Public transport journeys overall also exceeded the 2019/20 level of 83.4 million.
Bus travel remains central
Bus journeys increased only around 300,000, from 67.8 million to 68.1 million, and remained approximately 0.2% below the 68.3 million seen in 2019/20.
Of 68.1 million bus journeys, roughly 38.4 million were on Ulsterbus and 29.8 million on Metro and Glider. Despite the rail increase, buses still carry more than four-fifths of public transport journeys.
This is especially relevant for towns and communities not served by railway stations.
Cross-border services
Of the 15.9 million rail journeys, about 14.2 million were local and 1.7 million were cross-border. Cross-border trips thus represented approximately 10.4% of rail journeys. These data do not reveal how passengers would otherwise have travelled.
The bus fleet's transition
At March 2026, Translink operated 1,416 buses: 1,078 Ulsterbus, 304 Metro and 34 Glider vehicles. Of the bus fleet, 17.4% were zero-emission, 2.4% diesel hybrid and 80.2% diesel.
Fleet electrification and growth in ridership are separate metrics; both matter when assessing the network's environmental impact.
Has increased rail use reduced car traffic?
Not necessarily. Some added rail journeys may be trips previously made by bus, returning journeys after disruption, or trips that would not otherwise have occurred. Comparing passenger totals alone cannot measure how many car journeys were avoided.
Answering that would require road traffic counts, surveys of previous travel choices and route-specific passenger changes.
The arithmetic behind the headline
Using the rounded published totals, rail increased from about 13.3 million to 15.9 million journeys — a gain of roughly 2.6 million. Overall public transport increased from around 81.1 million to 84.0 million — a gain of 2.9 million. That makes rail responsible for roughly nine-tenths of the net increase, rather than nine-tenths of all transport journeys. Because the inputs are rounded, this 90% estimate is approximate.
Buses still handled around 68.1 million of the total 84.0 million journeys, or 81.1%. A system can therefore be overwhelmingly bus-based while its year-on-year growth comes mostly from trains.
Zero-emission buses: translate the percentage
With 1,416 buses recorded in March 2026 and 17.4% described as zero emission, the share corresponds to roughly 246 vehicles; 2.4% hybrid implies roughly 34 and 80.2% diesel roughly 1,136. These are estimates inferred from published percentages, not verified whole-vehicle counts: the published proportions are rounded.
Fleet composition does not measure the emissions produced per passenger journey. That would require distances travelled, energy sources, occupancy and operating conditions.
The comparison we cannot yet make
Grand Central's first full operating year changes the annual rail comparison, and prior disruption makes a simple 'people abandoned their cars' headline unsupportable. To establish a modal shift, passenger survey evidence should identify previous travel mode and reason for travelling, alongside traffic-count trends on relevant road corridors. The rail figures are compelling — they do not on their own demonstrate fewer cars on the road.
PureCar analysis
Northern Ireland's public transport journey total has recovered past its pre-pandemic level, but the latest year's growth is concentrated overwhelmingly in rail. Grand Central's opening and earlier service disruption are essential context.
The long-term challenge is understanding why buses remain broadly flat while rail moves beyond earlier levels — and ensuring that areas without rail access are not overlooked.
